资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Controversial results in the drying and wetting trends were found with different indices and potential evapotranspiration calculations in previous studies. Here we make an attempt to find robust conclusions of drying and wetting trends over regions by coherent results of various independent indices by using China (1961-2012) as a study area. Precipitation, statistical, and physical drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and self-calibrating PDSI (sc_PDSI), with both the Penman-Monteith (PM) and Thornthwaite (TH) approaches in PDSI calculation are considered. In consequence, four PDSI variants of PDSI_pm, sc_PDSI_pm, PDSI_th, and sc_PDSI_th are involved. To illustrate regional characteristics, six climatic regions based on the Koppen climate classification are defined. At the national scale, precipitation and SPEI indicate wetting trends but all PDSI variants have drying trends. On the other hand, these six indices exhibit coherent results in five of these six regions. Increases in wetness occur in arid region and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Drying trends were found in semiarid and cold and temperate semihumid regions. Only the humid region in southeastern China is seen to have increasing precipitation and SPEI and decreasing PDSI variants. From the perspective of climatic regions, the drying trends mainly occur in the transition regions between the humid and arid regions in China. The spatial pattern of changes in droughts could be categorized by climatic zones, and the changes at regional scale are robust based on these six indices.