Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province

doi:10.1126/science.abf8003

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.abf8003
	Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province
	Jonathan Pekar; Michael Worobey; Niema Moshiri; Konrad Scheffler; Joel O. Wertheim
	2021-04-23
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2021
英文摘要	Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may have had a history of abortive human infections before a variant established a productive enough infection to create a transmission chain with pandemic potential. Therefore, the Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event. Pekar et al. used genome data collected from the early cases of the COVID-19 pandemic combined with molecular clock inference and epidemiological simulation to estimate when the most successful variant gained a foothold in humans. This analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October to mid-November of 2019 in Hubei Province, China, with a likely short interval before epidemic transmission was initiated. Science , this issue p. [412][1] Understanding when severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We used a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated before the time of the most recent common ancestor of all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province, China. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that more than two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2–like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abf8003
领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
URL	查看原文
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/324084
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jonathan Pekar,Michael Worobey,Niema Moshiri,et al. Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province[J]. Science,2021.
APA	Jonathan Pekar,Michael Worobey,Niema Moshiri,Konrad Scheffler,&Joel O. Wertheim.(2021).Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province.Science.
MLA	Jonathan Pekar,et al."Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province".Science (2021).