Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15678 |
Improved phenological escape can help temperate tree seedlings maintain demographic performance under climate change conditions | |
Benjamin R. Lee; Iné; s Ibá; ñ; ez | |
2021-06-05 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology
![]() |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Phenological escape, a strategy that deciduous understory plants use to access direct light in spring by leafing out before the canopy closes, plays an important role in shaping the recruitment of temperate tree seedlings. Previous studies have investigated how climate change will alter these dynamics for herbaceous species, but there is a knowledge gap related to how woody species such as tree seedlings will be affected. Here, we modeled temperate tree seedling leaf-out phenology and canopy close phenology in response to environmental drivers and used climate change projections to forecast changes to the duration of spring phenological escape. We then used these predictions to estimate changes in annual carbon assimilation while accounting for reduced carbon assimilation rates associated with hotter and drier summers. Lastly, we applied these estimates to previously published models of seedling growth and survival to investigate the net effect on seedling demographic performance. Our models predict that temperate tree seedlings will experience improved phenological escape and, therefore, increased spring carbon assimilation under climate change conditions. However, increased summer respiration costs will offset the gains in spring under extreme climate change leading to a net loss in annual carbon assimilation and demographic performance. Furthermore, we found that annual carbon assimilation predictions depend strongly on the species of nearby canopy tree that seedlings were planted near, with all seedlings projected to assimilate less carbon (and therefore experience worse demographic performance) when planted near Quercus rubra canopy trees as opposed to Acer saccharum canopy trees. We conclude that changes to spring phenological escape will have important effects on how tree seedling recruitment is affected by climate change, with the magnitude of these effects dependent upon climate change severity and biological interactions with neighboring adults. Thus, future studies of temperate forest recruitment should account for phenological escape dynamics in their models. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/329707 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Benjamin R. Lee,Iné,s Ibá,et al. Improved phenological escape can help temperate tree seedlings maintain demographic performance under climate change conditions[J]. Global Change Biology,2021. |
APA | Benjamin R. Lee,Iné,s Ibá,ñ,&ez.(2021).Improved phenological escape can help temperate tree seedlings maintain demographic performance under climate change conditions.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Benjamin R. Lee,et al."Improved phenological escape can help temperate tree seedlings maintain demographic performance under climate change conditions".Global Change Biology (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论