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DOI | 10.1029/2021GL093106 |
Seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling | |
Sylvain Michel; Romain Jolivet; Chris Rollins; Jorge Jara; Luca Dal Zilio | |
2021-06-19 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude 9 or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies did not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the magnitude of large earthquakes. Here we combine an improved probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle to more fully assess the seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We propose a straightforward and efficient methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics-based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. We show that, accounting for uncertainties on the moment deficit rate, seismicity and earthquake physics, the MHT is prone to rupturing in |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/330695 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sylvain Michel,Romain Jolivet,Chris Rollins,et al. Seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Sylvain Michel,Romain Jolivet,Chris Rollins,Jorge Jara,&Luca Dal Zilio.(2021).Seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Sylvain Michel,et al."Seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
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