GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2021GL093106
Seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling
Sylvain Michel; Romain Jolivet; Chris Rollins; Jorge Jara; Luca Dal Zilio
2021-06-19
发表期刊Geophysical Research Letters
出版年2021
英文摘要

Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude 9 or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies did not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the magnitude of large earthquakes. Here we combine an improved probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle to more fully assess the seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We propose a straightforward and efficient methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics-based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. We show that, accounting for uncertainties on the moment deficit rate, seismicity and earthquake physics, the MHT is prone to rupturing in urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62571:grl62571-math-00018.7 earthquakes every T>200 yr.

领域气候变化
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/330695
专题气候变化
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Sylvain Michel,Romain Jolivet,Chris Rollins,et al. Seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021.
APA Sylvain Michel,Romain Jolivet,Chris Rollins,Jorge Jara,&Luca Dal Zilio.(2021).Seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling.Geophysical Research Letters.
MLA Sylvain Michel,et al."Seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling".Geophysical Research Letters (2021).
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