Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3222 |
Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model | |
Lutz, Wolfgang; Muttarak, Raya1 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Austria |
英文摘要 | In seeking to understand how future societies will be affected by climate change we cannot simply assume they will be identical to those of today, because climate and societies are both dynamic. Here we propose that the concept of demographic metabolism and the associated methods of multi-dimensional population projections provide an effective analytical toolbox to forecast important aspects of societal change that affect adaptive capacity. We present an example of how the changing educational composition of future populations can influence societies' adaptive capacity. Multi-dimensional population projections form the human core of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, and knowledge and analytical tools from demography have great value in assessing the likely implications of climate change on future human well-being. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396349400009 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NATURAL DISASTERS ; EDUCATIONAL-ATTAINMENT ; ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT ; UNITED-STATES ; DEATH TOLL ; ADAPTATION ; POPULATION ; GENDER ; COHORT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33879 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.VID OAW, IIASA, Wittgenstein Ctr Demog & Global Human Capital, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; 2.WU, IIASA, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz, Wolfgang,Muttarak, Raya. Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(3). |
APA | Lutz, Wolfgang,&Muttarak, Raya.(2017).Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(3). |
MLA | Lutz, Wolfgang,et al."Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.3(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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