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DOI10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z
Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming
Dottori, Francesco1; Szewczyk, Wojciech2; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos2; Zhao, Fang3; Alfieri, Lorenzo1; Hirabayashi, Yukiko4; Bianchi, Alessandra5; Mongelli, Ignazio2; Frieler, Katja3; Betts, Richard A.6,7; Feyen, Luc1
2018-09-01
发表期刊NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN1758-678X
EISSN1758-6798
出版年2018
卷号8期号:9页码:781-+
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Italy; Spain; Germany; Japan; England
英文摘要

River floods are among some of the costliest natural disasters(1), but their socio-economic impacts under contrasting warming levels remain little explored(2). Here, using a multi-model framework, we estimate human losses, direct economic damage and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C warming)(3) and socio-economic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in the absence of future adaptation. With temperature increases of 1.5 degrees C, depending on the socio-economic scenario, it is found that human losses from flooding could rise by 70-83%, direct flood damage by 160-240%, with a relative welfare reduction between 0.23 and 0.29%. In a 2 degrees C world, by contrast, the death toll is 50% higher, direct economic damage doubles and welfare losses grow to 0.4%. Impacts are notably higher under 3 C warming, but at the same time, variability between ensemble members also increases, leading to greater uncertainty regarding flood impacts at higher warming levels. Flood impacts are further shown to have an uneven regional distribution, with the greatest losses observed in the Asian continent at all analysed warming levels. It is clear that increased adaptation and mitigation efforts-perhaps through infrastructural investment(4)-are needed to offset increasing risk of river floods in the future.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000443195300014
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; RISK ; CMIP5 ; VULNERABILITY ; PROTECTION ; FRAMEWORK ; EXTREMES ; BENEFITS ; HAZARD
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34167
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.European Commiss, JRC, Directorate Space Secur & Migrat, Ispra, Italy;
2.European Commiss, JRC, Directorate Energy Transport & Climate, Seville, Spain;
3.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany;
4.Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo, Japan;
5.Arcadia SIT, Vigevano, Italy;
6.Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter, Devon, England;
7.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
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GB/T 7714
Dottori, Francesco,Szewczyk, Wojciech,Ciscar, Juan-Carlos,et al. Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(9):781-+.
APA Dottori, Francesco.,Szewczyk, Wojciech.,Ciscar, Juan-Carlos.,Zhao, Fang.,Alfieri, Lorenzo.,...&Feyen, Luc.(2018).Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(9),781-+.
MLA Dottori, Francesco,et al."Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.9(2018):781-+.
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