Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z |
Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming | |
Dottori, Francesco1; Szewczyk, Wojciech2; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos2; Zhao, Fang3; Alfieri, Lorenzo1; Hirabayashi, Yukiko4; Bianchi, Alessandra5; Mongelli, Ignazio2; Frieler, Katja3; Betts, Richard A.6,7; Feyen, Luc1 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:9页码:781-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Italy; Spain; Germany; Japan; England |
英文摘要 | River floods are among some of the costliest natural disasters(1), but their socio-economic impacts under contrasting warming levels remain little explored(2). Here, using a multi-model framework, we estimate human losses, direct economic damage and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C warming)(3) and socio-economic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in the absence of future adaptation. With temperature increases of 1.5 degrees C, depending on the socio-economic scenario, it is found that human losses from flooding could rise by 70-83%, direct flood damage by 160-240%, with a relative welfare reduction between 0.23 and 0.29%. In a 2 degrees C world, by contrast, the death toll is 50% higher, direct economic damage doubles and welfare losses grow to 0.4%. Impacts are notably higher under 3 C warming, but at the same time, variability between ensemble members also increases, leading to greater uncertainty regarding flood impacts at higher warming levels. Flood impacts are further shown to have an uneven regional distribution, with the greatest losses observed in the Asian continent at all analysed warming levels. It is clear that increased adaptation and mitigation efforts-perhaps through infrastructural investment(4)-are needed to offset increasing risk of river floods in the future. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000443195300014 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; RISK ; CMIP5 ; VULNERABILITY ; PROTECTION ; FRAMEWORK ; EXTREMES ; BENEFITS ; HAZARD |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34167 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.European Commiss, JRC, Directorate Space Secur & Migrat, Ispra, Italy; 2.European Commiss, JRC, Directorate Energy Transport & Climate, Seville, Spain; 3.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany; 4.Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo, Japan; 5.Arcadia SIT, Vigevano, Italy; 6.Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter, Devon, England; 7.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dottori, Francesco,Szewczyk, Wojciech,Ciscar, Juan-Carlos,et al. Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(9):781-+. |
APA | Dottori, Francesco.,Szewczyk, Wojciech.,Ciscar, Juan-Carlos.,Zhao, Fang.,Alfieri, Lorenzo.,...&Feyen, Luc.(2018).Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(9),781-+. |
MLA | Dottori, Francesco,et al."Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.9(2018):781-+. |
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