Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3867-7 |
North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections | |
Olson, R.1; An, S-I1; Fan, Y.2; Evans, J. P.3; Caesar, L.4,5 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:4171-4188 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; Australia; Germany |
英文摘要 | Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios. |
英文关键词 | Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Climate modeling Bayesian Model Averaging Model structural error Probabilistic projections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000432597400013 |
WOS关键词 | THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DEEP-WATER ; MODEL ; SYSTEM ; OCEAN ; FUTURE ; UNCERTAINTY ; STABILITY ; CO2 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35213 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Yonsei Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, 538 Sci Bldg, Seoul, South Korea; 2.UNSW, Sch Math & Stat, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 3.UNSW, Climate Change Res Ctr, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 4.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Berlin, Germany; 5.Univ Potsdam, Inst Phys & Astron, Potsdam, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olson, R.,An, S-I,Fan, Y.,et al. North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:4171-4188. |
APA | Olson, R.,An, S-I,Fan, Y.,Evans, J. P.,&Caesar, L..(2018).North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,4171-4188. |
MLA | Olson, R.,et al."North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):4171-4188. |
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