GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3444-5
Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models
Osman, Marisol1,2,3; Vera, C. S.2,3
2017-10-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号49
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Argentina
英文摘要

This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to those associated with the signal, especially at the extratropics.


英文关键词South America Seasonal predictability El Nino Southern Oscillation Precipitation Temperature
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000410803300009
WOS关键词ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE ZONE ; GCM SIMULATIONS ; PRECIPITATION ; ENSEMBLE ; ENSO ; VARIABILITY ; SUMMER ; SSTS ; 1ST
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35741
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Ciudad Univ,Pabellon 2-2do Piso,C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina;
2.UBA, CONICET, CIMA, UMI IFAECI,CNRS, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina;
3.Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera & Oceanos, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina
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GB/T 7714
Osman, Marisol,Vera, C. S.. Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49.
APA Osman, Marisol,&Vera, C. S..(2017).Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49.
MLA Osman, Marisol,et al."Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017).
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