Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3366-2 |
Impact of climate change and El Nio episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa | |
Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum; Gan, Thian Yew | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Various drought prone regions of sub-Saharan Africa (SSAF) have been affected by severe droughts in recent decades and centuries, which had caused catastrophic humanitarian crisis. In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index was used to analyse changes in drought characteristics of SSAF during 1971-2000 and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate projections of selected GCMs (Global Climate Models) for the 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s) periods. The results show that most areas in South Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) will shift to a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s. However, some areas in Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are expected to be relatively wetter in the 2050 and 2080s whereas very little change is projected in the average drought severity of Central Africa (CA). The frequency of short (6-12 months) and long (above 12 months) drought events also increased on average by 5 %. However, a 1-6 % decrease in the average duration of long drought periods was projected during the 2050 and 2080s likely due to the increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in SSAF. An increase in the frequency of El Nio episodes under a warmer twentyfirst century climate is also expected to increase the drought prone regions of WA, SA and particularly GHA while CA still remains virtually unaffected. Overall, the results suggest that SSAF will experience a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s with an increase in drought prone areas in the four corners of the sub-continent. |
英文关键词 | PDSI RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Sub-Saharan Africa El Nino Drought Indices |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000403716500038 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHERN AFRICA ; SEASONAL RAINFALL ; NINO ; VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTABILITY ; FREQUENCY ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35975 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum,Gan, Thian Yew. Impact of climate change and El Nio episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49. |
APA | Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum,&Gan, Thian Yew.(2017).Impact of climate change and El Nio episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49. |
MLA | Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum,et al."Impact of climate change and El Nio episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017). |
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