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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3878-4 |
Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures | |
Pan, Yutong1,3,5; Zeng, Ning1; Mariotti, Annarita2; Wang, Hui3; Kumar, Arun3; Lobato Sanchez, Rene4; Jha, Bhaskar3,5 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:4335-4346 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Mexico |
英文摘要 | In this study, the relationships between Central America/Mexico (CAM) winter precipitation and tropical Pacific/Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are examined based on 68-year (1948-2015) observations and 59-year (1957-2015) atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SSTs. The covariability of the winter precipitation and SSTs is quantified using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method with observational data. The first SVD mode relates out-of-phase precipitation anomalies in northern Mexico and Central America to the tropical Pacific El Nio/La Nia SST variation. The second mode links a decreasing trend in the precipitation over Central America to the warming of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, as well as in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean. The first mode represents 67% of the covariance between the two fields, indicating a strong association between CAM winter precipitation and El Nio/La Nia, whereas the second mode represents 20% of the covariance. The two modes account for 32% of CAM winter precipitation variance, of which, 17% is related to the El Nio/La Nia SST and 15% is related to the SST warming trend. The atmospheric circulation patterns, including 500-hPa height and low-level winds obtained by linear regressions against the SVD SST time series, are dynamically consistent with the precipitation anomaly patterns. The model simulations driven by the observed SSTs suggest that these precipitation anomalies are likely a response to tropical SST forcing. It is also shown that there is significant potential predictability of CAM winter precipitation given tropical SST information. |
英文关键词 | Precipitation Sea surface temperature Central America Mexico |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000432597400022 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; EL-NINO ; CARIBBEAN RAINFALL ; AMERICAN RAINFALL ; US PRECIPITATION ; UNITED-STATES ; VARIABILITY ; PACIFIC ; MEXICO ; ATLANTIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36164 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Maryland, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 2.NOAA, OAR, Climate Program Off, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA; 3.NOAA, NWS, NCEP, Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 4.Mexican Inst Water Technol, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico; 5.Innovim, Greenbelt, MD 20770 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pan, Yutong,Zeng, Ning,Mariotti, Annarita,et al. Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:4335-4346. |
APA | Pan, Yutong.,Zeng, Ning.,Mariotti, Annarita.,Wang, Hui.,Kumar, Arun.,...&Jha, Bhaskar.(2018).Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,4335-4346. |
MLA | Pan, Yutong,et al."Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):4335-4346. |
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