GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-017-3878-4
Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures
Pan, Yutong1,3,5; Zeng, Ning1; Mariotti, Annarita2; Wang, Hui3; Kumar, Arun3; Lobato Sanchez, Rene4; Jha, Bhaskar3,5
2018-06-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2018
卷号50页码:4335-4346
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Mexico
英文摘要

In this study, the relationships between Central America/Mexico (CAM) winter precipitation and tropical Pacific/Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are examined based on 68-year (1948-2015) observations and 59-year (1957-2015) atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SSTs. The covariability of the winter precipitation and SSTs is quantified using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method with observational data. The first SVD mode relates out-of-phase precipitation anomalies in northern Mexico and Central America to the tropical Pacific El Nio/La Nia SST variation. The second mode links a decreasing trend in the precipitation over Central America to the warming of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, as well as in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean. The first mode represents 67% of the covariance between the two fields, indicating a strong association between CAM winter precipitation and El Nio/La Nia, whereas the second mode represents 20% of the covariance. The two modes account for 32% of CAM winter precipitation variance, of which, 17% is related to the El Nio/La Nia SST and 15% is related to the SST warming trend. The atmospheric circulation patterns, including 500-hPa height and low-level winds obtained by linear regressions against the SVD SST time series, are dynamically consistent with the precipitation anomaly patterns. The model simulations driven by the observed SSTs suggest that these precipitation anomalies are likely a response to tropical SST forcing. It is also shown that there is significant potential predictability of CAM winter precipitation given tropical SST information.


英文关键词Precipitation Sea surface temperature Central America Mexico
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000432597400022
WOS关键词CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; EL-NINO ; CARIBBEAN RAINFALL ; AMERICAN RAINFALL ; US PRECIPITATION ; UNITED-STATES ; VARIABILITY ; PACIFIC ; MEXICO ; ATLANTIC
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36164
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Maryland, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA;
2.NOAA, OAR, Climate Program Off, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA;
3.NOAA, NWS, NCEP, Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD 20740 USA;
4.Mexican Inst Water Technol, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico;
5.Innovim, Greenbelt, MD 20770 USA
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Pan, Yutong,Zeng, Ning,Mariotti, Annarita,et al. Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:4335-4346.
APA Pan, Yutong.,Zeng, Ning.,Mariotti, Annarita.,Wang, Hui.,Kumar, Arun.,...&Jha, Bhaskar.(2018).Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,4335-4346.
MLA Pan, Yutong,et al."Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):4335-4346.
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