Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3513-9 |
Decadal potential predictability of upper ocean heat content over the twentieth century | |
Li, Shujun1,2; Zhang, Liping3,4; Wu, Lixin1,2 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | The statistical method, Average Predictability Time (APT) decomposition, is used in the present paper to estimate the decadal predictability of upper ocean heat content over the global ocean, North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. The twentieth century simulations from CMIP5 outputs are the main data sources in this study. On global scale, the leading predictable component is characterized by a warming trend over the majority of oceans, which is related to the anthropogenic forced response. The second predictable component has significant loadings in the North Atlantic, especially in the subtropical region, which originates from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) predictability. To separate interactions among different ocean basins, we further maximize APT in individual North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. It is found that the second and the third predictable component in North Pacific are significantly correlated with the well-known North Pacific Gyre Oscillation mode and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation respectively. Upper limit prediction skill of these two components are on the order of 6 years. In contrast, the most predictable component derived from the North Atlantic features an AMO-like spatial structure with its prediction skill up to 18 years, while the basin mode due to global warming only exists as the third component. This indicates the interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic is strong enough to mask the anthropogenic climate signals. Furthermore, predictability in the real world is also investigated and compared with model results by using observation-based data. |
英文关键词 | Decadal potential predictability Upper ocean heat content Average predictability time PDO AMO |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414153800021 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ATLANTIC SUBPOLAR GYRE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; PART I ; MULTIYEAR PREDICTABILITY ; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; TIME SCALES ; PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36214 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab CIMST, 238 Songling Rd, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China; 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, 238 Songling Rd, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China; 3.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 4.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Shujun,Zhang, Liping,Wu, Lixin. Decadal potential predictability of upper ocean heat content over the twentieth century[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49. |
APA | Li, Shujun,Zhang, Liping,&Wu, Lixin.(2017).Decadal potential predictability of upper ocean heat content over the twentieth century.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49. |
MLA | Li, Shujun,et al."Decadal potential predictability of upper ocean heat content over the twentieth century".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017). |
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