GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3513-9
Decadal potential predictability of upper ocean heat content over the twentieth century
Li, Shujun1,2; Zhang, Liping3,4; Wu, Lixin1,2
2017-11-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号49
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China; USA
英文摘要

The statistical method, Average Predictability Time (APT) decomposition, is used in the present paper to estimate the decadal predictability of upper ocean heat content over the global ocean, North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. The twentieth century simulations from CMIP5 outputs are the main data sources in this study. On global scale, the leading predictable component is characterized by a warming trend over the majority of oceans, which is related to the anthropogenic forced response. The second predictable component has significant loadings in the North Atlantic, especially in the subtropical region, which originates from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) predictability. To separate interactions among different ocean basins, we further maximize APT in individual North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. It is found that the second and the third predictable component in North Pacific are significantly correlated with the well-known North Pacific Gyre Oscillation mode and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation respectively. Upper limit prediction skill of these two components are on the order of 6 years. In contrast, the most predictable component derived from the North Atlantic features an AMO-like spatial structure with its prediction skill up to 18 years, while the basin mode due to global warming only exists as the third component. This indicates the interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic is strong enough to mask the anthropogenic climate signals. Furthermore, predictability in the real world is also investigated and compared with model results by using observation-based data.


英文关键词Decadal potential predictability Upper ocean heat content Average predictability time PDO AMO
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000414153800021
WOS关键词SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ATLANTIC SUBPOLAR GYRE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; PART I ; MULTIYEAR PREDICTABILITY ; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; TIME SCALES ; PACIFIC
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36214
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab CIMST, 238 Songling Rd, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China;
2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, 238 Songling Rd, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China;
3.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
4.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Li, Shujun,Zhang, Liping,Wu, Lixin. Decadal potential predictability of upper ocean heat content over the twentieth century[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49.
APA Li, Shujun,Zhang, Liping,&Wu, Lixin.(2017).Decadal potential predictability of upper ocean heat content over the twentieth century.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49.
MLA Li, Shujun,et al."Decadal potential predictability of upper ocean heat content over the twentieth century".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017).
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Li, Shujun]的文章
[Zhang, Liping]的文章
[Wu, Lixin]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Li, Shujun]的文章
[Zhang, Liping]的文章
[Wu, Lixin]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Li, Shujun]的文章
[Zhang, Liping]的文章
[Wu, Lixin]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。