Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaaad3 |
Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities | |
Guerreiro, Selma B.1; Dawson, Richard J.1; Kilsby, Chris1,2; Lewis, Elizabeth1; Ford, Alistair1 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate risks due to their agglomeration of people, buildings and infrastructure. Differences in methodology, hazards considered, and climate models used limit the utility and comparability of climate studies on individual cities. Here we assess, for the first time, future changes in flood, heat-waves (HW), and drought impacts for all 571 European cities in the Urban Audit database using a consistent approach. To capture the full range of uncertainties in natural variability and climate models, we use all climate model runs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario to calculate Low, Medium and High Impact scenarios, which correspond to the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of each hazard for each city. We find that HW days increase across all cities, but especially in southern Europe, whilst the greatest HW temperature increases are expected in central European cities. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions intensify in southern European cities while river flooding worsens in northern European cities. However, the high impact scenario projects that most European cities will see increases in both drought and river flood risks. Over 100 cities are particularly vulnerable to two or more climate impacts. Moreover, the magnitude of impacts exceeds those previously reported highlighting the substantial challenge cities face to manage future climate risks. |
英文关键词 | heat-waves droughts floods cities climate change urban europe |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425742100001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PROJECTIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; ADAPTATION ; FRAMEWORK ; SUMMER ; IBERIA |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36544 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Newcastle Univ, Sch Engn, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England; 2.Willis Res Network, 51 Lime St, London EC3M 7DQ, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guerreiro, Selma B.,Dawson, Richard J.,Kilsby, Chris,et al. Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(3). |
APA | Guerreiro, Selma B.,Dawson, Richard J.,Kilsby, Chris,Lewis, Elizabeth,&Ford, Alistair.(2018).Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(3). |
MLA | Guerreiro, Selma B.,et al."Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.3(2018). |
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