GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5327
Assessment and correction of BCC_CSM's performance in capturing leading modes of summer precipitation over North Asia
Gong, Zhiqiang1; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar2,3; Qiao, Shaobo4; Hu, Po4; Feng, Guolin1,4
2018-04-01
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38期号:5页码:2201-2214
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China; Saudi Arabia; Pakistan
英文摘要

This article examines the ability of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) in demonstrating the prediction accuracy and the leading modes of the summer precipitation over North Asia (NA). A dynamic-statistic combined approach for improving the prediction accuracy and the prediction of the leading modes of the summer precipitation over NA is proposed. Our results show that the BCC_CSM can capture part of the spatial anomaly features of the first two leading modes of NA summer precipitation. Moreover, BCC_CSM regains relationships such that the first and second mode of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF1 and EOF2) of NA summer precipitation, respectively, corresponds to the development of the El Nino and La Nina conditions in the tropical East Pacific. Nevertheless, BCC_CSM exhibits limited prediction skill over most part of NA and presents a deficiency in reproducing the EOF1's and EOF2's spatial pattern over central NA and EOF2's interannual variability. This can be attributed as the possible reasons why the model is unable to capture the correct relationships among the basic climate elements over the central NA, lacks in its ability to reproduce a consistent zonal atmospheric pattern over NA, and has bias in predicting the relevant Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modes over the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Based on the proposed dynamic-statistic combined correction approach, compared with the leading modes of BCC_CSM's original prediction, anomaly correlation coefficients of corrected EOF1/EOF2 with the tropical Indian Ocean SST are improved from 0.18/0.36 to 0.51/0.62. Hence, the proposed correction approach suggests that the BCC_CSM's prediction skill for the summer precipitation prediction over NA and its ability to capture the dominant modes could be certainly improved by choosing proper historical analogue information.


英文关键词leading modes assessment prediction dynamic-statistic combined correction
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000428880600005
WOS关键词TELECONNECTION PATTERN ; DECADAL CHANGE ; EAST-ASIA ; PREDICTION ; MONSOON ; RAINFALL ; VARIABILITY ; CHINA ; DYNAMICS ; SYSTEM
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37264
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Natl Climate Res Ctr CMA, Lab Climate Studies, Zhongguancun South St 46, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
2.King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Earth Sci & Engn Dept, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia;
3.Minist Climate Change, Global Change Impact Studies Ctr, Islamabad, Pakistan;
4.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Gong, Zhiqiang,Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar,Qiao, Shaobo,et al. Assessment and correction of BCC_CSM's performance in capturing leading modes of summer precipitation over North Asia[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(5):2201-2214.
APA Gong, Zhiqiang,Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar,Qiao, Shaobo,Hu, Po,&Feng, Guolin.(2018).Assessment and correction of BCC_CSM's performance in capturing leading modes of summer precipitation over North Asia.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(5),2201-2214.
MLA Gong, Zhiqiang,et al."Assessment and correction of BCC_CSM's performance in capturing leading modes of summer precipitation over North Asia".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.5(2018):2201-2214.
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