资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

We examined a future change of Koppen-Geiger climate classification zones in central Europe in the 21st century using the high-resolution (10 km) bias-corrected simulations of two regional climate models following the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Temperate oceanic climate (Cfb) will remain the dominant climate type in central Europe but it will extent into higher altitudes and replace boreal or colder climate types that will practically vanish by the end of the 21st century. There is a risk of large-scale expansion of humid subtropical (Cfa) climate in lower altitudes where 20-50% of population lives nowadays. In the end of the century the majority of arable land and permanent crops areas will be in the Cfa zone. A growing occurrence of Cfa-like or Mediterranean climate-like (Csa) years will reach up to 50% at some locations where 1.4 million people live today. Almost all agriculturally important areas and two thirds of the current population will be exposed to the occurrence of Cfa- and Csa-like years at least once in 10 years which may result into a lower production of rain-fed crops as it was the case of of Cfa- and Csa-like years of 2000, 2012 and 2015.