Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.4989 |
Stationarity of major flood frequencies and heights on the Ba River, Fiji, over a 122-year record | |
McAneney, John; van den Honert, Robin; Yeo, Stephen | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | The economic impact of natural disasters on developing economies can be severe with the recovery diverting scarce funds that might otherwise be targeted at development projects and stimulating the need for international aid. In view of the likely sensitivity of low-lying Pacific Islands to anticipated changes in climate, a 122-year record of major flooding depths at the Rarawai Sugar Mill on the Ba River in the northwest of the Fijian Island of Viti Levu is analysed. Reconstructed largely from archived correspondence of the Colonial Sugar Refining Company, the time series comprises simple measurements of height above the Mill floor. It exhibits no statistically significant trends in either frequency or flood heights, once the latter have been adjusted for average relative sea-level rise. This is despite persistent warming of air temperatures as characterized in other studies. There is a strong dependence of frequency (but not magnitude) upon El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, with many more floods in La Nina phases. The analysis of this long-term data series illustrates the difficulty of detecting a global climate change signal from hazard data, even given a consistent measurement methodology (cf HURDAT2 record of North Atlantic hurricanes) and warns of the strong dependence of any statistical significance upon choices of start and end dates of the analysis. |
英文关键词 | climate change flooding flood frequency flood heights time series analysis Small Island Developing States |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417298600012 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL PACIFIC ; BUILDING DAMAGE ; INSURED LOSSES ; CLIMATE ; HURRICANE ; DISASTER ; TRENDS ; POPULATION ; FATALITIES ; LOCATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37749 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Macquarie Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Risk Frontiers, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | McAneney, John,van den Honert, Robin,Yeo, Stephen. Stationarity of major flood frequencies and heights on the Ba River, Fiji, over a 122-year record[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37. |
APA | McAneney, John,van den Honert, Robin,&Yeo, Stephen.(2017).Stationarity of major flood frequencies and heights on the Ba River, Fiji, over a 122-year record.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37. |
MLA | McAneney, John,et al."Stationarity of major flood frequencies and heights on the Ba River, Fiji, over a 122-year record".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37(2017). |
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