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DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.019 |
Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation | |
Pop, Lukas; Sokol, Zbynek; Minarova, Jana | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 216页码:1-10 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Czech Republic |
英文摘要 | The study presents a new method nowcasting precipitation called the Ensemble Tree Method (ETM), which gives probability forecast of accumulated precipitation based on the extrapolation of radar reflectivity. ETM combines a tree model with a Bootstrap technique. It forecasts the probability that the hourly accumulated precipitation exceeds a given threshold for cells of 3 by 3km size. ETM was tested using radar reflectivity data from July 2012 in a domain of 489 km by 291 km covering the Czech Republic (Central Europe). While forecasting, we considered a lead time of up to 180 min having a time step of 30 min and four precipitation thresholds (0.1, 1.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm). ETM provided us forecasts of the probability of exceeding an hourly precipitation threshold from 0 to 60 min, 30 to 90 min, ... , and 120 to 180 min. The performance of ETM was assessed using a skill score derived from the mean-square-error, and was compared with the performance of forecasts based on a logistic regression that was used as reference forecast. We demonstrated that the prediction of ETM is better than that of the reference forecast. The main advantage of ETM is that the ETM reflects the uncertainty of forecast better as compared to the overconfident reference forecasts, which is particularly true for the higher precipitation thresholds. Thus, despite low predicted probabilities, the forecasts given by ETM seem more realistic. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452344700001 |
WOS关键词 | SCALE-DEPENDENCE ; PART II ; FORECASTS ; MODEL ; PREDICTABILITY ; RAINFALL ; IMAGES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38075 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | Czech Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Bocni 2 1401, Prague 14131, Czech Republic |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pop, Lukas,Sokol, Zbynek,Minarova, Jana. Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2019,216:1-10. |
APA | Pop, Lukas,Sokol, Zbynek,&Minarova, Jana.(2019).Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,216,1-10. |
MLA | Pop, Lukas,et al."Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 216(2019):1-10. |
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