Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning

doi:10.7249/RR1112

GSTDTAP > 资源环境科学

DOI	10.7249/RR1112
报告编号	RR-1112-OSD
	Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning
	Robert J. Lempert; Drake Warren; Ryan Henry; Robert W. Button; Jonathan Klenk; Kate Giglio
	2016
出版年	2016
页数	108
语种	英语
国家	美国
出版者	RAND Corporation
领域	资源环境
英文摘要	Today's defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to determine what forces and capabilities will be needed to address future threats to our national security and interests may be vulnerable to predictive failure. To manage these risks, a new approach to planning is needed to identify strategies that perform well over a wide range of threat and funding futures and thus are better able to manage surprise. This report describes how robust decision making (RDM) may help address this need. RDM, a quantitative decision support methodology for informing decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity, has been applied to many policy areas in the last decade. This document provides a proof of concept application of RDM to defense planning, focusing on the air-launched munitions mix challenge. The study embeds a fast-running "weapons on targets" allocation model within a "scenario generator" that explores many thousands of plausible, future twenty-year series of military campaigns. The RDM analysis uses these simulation models to stress-test alternative munitions mix strategies against many plausible futures. The analysis then identifies a robust munitions mix strategy, which interestingly depends not only on the desired portfolio of alternative weapons types but also on the rules used to replenish depleted weapons stocks after each campaign. The study also suggests how RDM might best be integrated into current Department of Defense planning processes and some of the challenges that might be involved.
英文关键词	Military Budgets and Defense Spending Military Equipment Military Acquisition and Procurement Military Strategy Robust Decision Making
URL	查看原文
来源平台	Rand Corporation
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/4355
专题	资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Robert J. Lempert,Drake Warren,Ryan Henry,et al. Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning:RAND Corporation,2016.