Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoonal Asia

doi:10.2172/1168586

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.2172/1168586
报告编号	DOE-UCLA--6694
来源ID	OSTI ID: 1168586
	Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoonal Asia
	Ghil, Michael; Robertson, Andrew W.; Cook, Edward R.; DâArrigo, Rosanne; Lall, Upmanu; Smyth, Padhraic J.
	2015-01-18
出版年	2015
页数	4
语种	英语
国家	美国
领域	地球科学
英文摘要	We developed further our advanced methods of time series analysis and empirical model reduction (EMR) and applied them to climatic time series relevant to hydroclimate over Monsoonal Asia. The EMR methodology was both generalized further and laid on a rigorous mathematical basis via multilayered stochastic models (MSMs). We identified easily testable conditions that imply the existence of a global random attractor for MSMs and allow for non-polynomial predictors. This existence, in turn, guarantees the numerical stability of the MSMs so obtained. We showed that, in the presence of low-frequency variability (LFV), EMR prediction can be improved further by including information from selected times in the systemâs past. This prediction method, dubbed Past-Noise Forecasting (PNF), was successfully applied to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Our time series analysis and forecasting methods, based on singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) and its enhancements, were applied to several multi-centennial proxy records provided by the Lamont team. These included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1300â2005 from the Monsoonal Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and a 300-member ensemble of pseudo-reconstructions of Indus River discharge for 1702â2005. The latter was shown to exhibit a robust 27-yr low-frequency mode, which helped multi-decadal retroactive forecasts with no look-ahead over this 300-year interval.
英文关键词	Centennial proxy records, Data-based closure models, Empirical model reduction (EMR), Indus River discharge, Low-frequency variability (LFV), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA), Stochast
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来源平台	US Department of Energy (DOE)
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/6854
专题	地球科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ghil, Michael,Robertson, Andrew W.,Cook, Edward R.,et al. Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoonal Asia,2015.