GSTDTAP

浏览/检索结果: 共80条,第1-10条 帮助

已选(0)清除 条数/页:   排序方式:
国际研究关注加强基于自然的解决方案的科学基础 快报文章
资源环境快报,2024年第7期
作者:  裴惠娟
Microsoft Word(17Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:700/0  |  提交时间:2024/04/16
Nature-based Climate Solutions  Uncertainty  
Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (7)
作者:  Qian, Budong;  Jing, Qi;  Smith, Ward;  Grant, Brian;  Cannon, Alex J.;  Zhang, Xuebin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
climate change impacts  crop production  crop modelling  internal climate variability  uncertainty  
Evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models Over the Iberian Peninsula: Observational Uncertainty Analysis 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2020, 125 (12)
作者:  Herrera, S.;  Soares, P. M. M.;  Cardoso, R. M.;  Gutierrez, J. M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:28/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
observational uncertainty  regional climate models  ensemble  extremes  Iberia01  CORDEX  
Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (13)
作者:  Fosser, Giorgia;  Kendon, Elizabeth J.;  Stephenson, David;  Tucker, Simon
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2020/06/16
convection-permitting model  climate change  uncertainty  climate  
Uncertainties in macroeconomic assessments of low-carbon transition pathways - The case of the European iron and steel industry 期刊论文
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, 2020, 172
作者:  Bachner, G.;  Mayer, J.;  Steininger, K. W.;  Anger-Kraavi, A.;  Smith, A.;  Barker, T. S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Climate change mitigation  Uncertainty  Low carbon transition  Iron and steel  Macroeconomic modelling  Process emissions  
Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (13)
作者:  Dittus, Andrea J.;  Hawkins, Ed;  Wilcox, Laura J.;  Sutton, Rowan T.;  Smith, Christopher J.;  Andrews, Martin B.;  Forster, Piers M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:25/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25
historical aerosol forcing  climate model simulations  Forcing uncertainty  Transient Climate Response  Large ensemble  
Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7808) : 294-+
作者:  Ibrahim, Nizar;  Maganuco, Simone;  Dal Sasso, Cristiano;  Fabbri, Matteo;  Auditore, Marco;  Bindellini, Gabriele;  Martill, David M.;  Zouhri, Samir;  Mattarelli, Diego A.;  Unwin, David M.;  Wiemann, Jasmina;  Bonadonna, Davide;  Amane, Ayoub;  Jakubczak, Juliana;  Joger, Ulrich;  Lauder, George V.;  Pierce, Stephanie E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:34/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25

Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover(1-3). These changes in snow cover affect Earth'  s climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere(4-6). In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking(7-9). Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980-2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 +/- 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40 degrees N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433-3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846-3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)-a reduction in uncertainty from 33% to 7.4%. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia  both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth'  s energy, water and carbon budgets.


Applying a bias correction to a state-of-the-art dataset covering non-alpine regions of the Northern Hemisphere and to three other datasets yields a more constrained quantification of snow mass in March from 1980 to 2018.


  
A Large Ensemble Approach to Quantifying Internal Model Variability Within the WRF Numerical Model 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2020, 125 (7)
作者:  Bassett, R.;  Young, P. J.;  Blair, G. S.;  Samreen, F.;  Simm, W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
ensemble  initial conditions  internal model variability (IMV)  regional climate model (RCM)  uncertainty  Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)  
When can decision analysis improve climate adaptation planning? Two procedures to match analysis approaches with adaptation problems 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019, 157 (3-4) : 611-630
作者:  Shi, Rui;  Hobbs, Benjamin F.;  Jiang, Huai
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Climate change adaptation  Type of decision analysis  Cost-benefit analysis  Climate uncertainty  Chesapeake Bay  
Assessment of uncertainty in multi-model means of downscaled South Florida precipitation for projected (2019-2099) climate 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Infanti, Johnna M.;  Kirtman, Ben P.;  Aumen, Nicholas G.;  Stamm, John;  Polsky, Colin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:28/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
climate data uncertainty  downscaling  Florida precipitation  regional climate change