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Excessive Momentum and False Alarms in Late-Spring ENSO Forecasts 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (8)
作者:  Tippett, Michael K.;  39;Heureux, Michelle L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/02
ENSO  prediction  forecast busts  
Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7363-7380
作者:  Cash, Benjamin A.;  Manganello, Julia V.;  Kinter, James L., III
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/17
Monsoon  ENSO  Forecast skill  
The relationship among probabilistic, deterministic and potential skills in predicting the ENSO for the past 161 years 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (11) : 6947-6960
作者:  Liu, Ting;  Tang, Youmin;  Yang, Dejian;  Cheng, Yanjie;  Song, Xunshu;  Hou, Zhaolu;  Shen, Zheqi;  Gao, Yanqiu;  Wu, Yanling;  Li, Xiaojing;  Zhang, Banglin
收藏  |  浏览/下载：10/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/17
ENSO ensemble forecast  Predictability  Nonlinear monotonic relationship  
GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7335-7361
作者:  Borovikov, Anna;  Cullather, Richard;  Kovach, Robin;  Marshak, Jelena;  Vernieres, Guillaume;  Vikhliaev, Yury;  Zhao, Bin;  Li, Zhao
收藏  |  浏览/下载：14/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/17
Global forecast  Seasonal prediction  NMME  GEOS-5  ENSO  Forecast skill  
Deterministic Skill of Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts for the East Africa-West Asia Sector from September to May 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (22) : 11887-11896
作者:  Vigaud, N.;  Tippett, M. K.;  Robertson, A. W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：11/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/17
S2S rainfall forecasts show statistically significant skill in the East Africa-West Asia sector out to Week 4  Forecast skill of dynamical models exceeds that of statistical models based on ENSO and the MJO  Tropical-temperate interactions may represent a new source of S2S predictability  
How does ENSO diversity limit the skill of tropical Pacific precipitation forecasts in dynamical seasonal predictions? 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 5815-5831
作者:  Sohn, Soo-Jin;  Tam, Chi-Yung;  Kug, Jong-Seong
收藏  |  浏览/下载：9/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
ENSO diversity  ENSO prediction  SST forecast  Tropical Pacific precipitation forecast  Dynamical seasonal prediction  Multimodal ensemble  
Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2) 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 52 (11) : 6599-6617
作者:  Chevuturi, Amulya;  Turner, Andrew G.;  Woolnough, Steven J.;  Martin, Gill M.;  MacLachlan, Craig
收藏  |  浏览/下载：12/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
Indian summer monsoon  Monsoon onset  GloSea5-GC2  Forecast skill  ENSO  
Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 52: 2199-2216
作者:  Gavrilov, Andrey;  Seleznev, Aleksei;  Mukhin, Dmitry;  Loskutov, Evgeny;  Feigin, Alexander;  Kurths, Juergen
收藏  |  浏览/下载：5/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Empirical modeling  Data dimensionality reduction  Nonlinear stochastic modeling  ENSO forecast  
Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (6)
作者:  Menegoz, M.;  Bilbao, R.;  Bellprat, O.;  Guemas, V.;  Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
ENSO  decadal forecast  climate variability  volcanic aerosols  skill of forecast systems  
Improving ENSO prediction in CFSv2 with an analogue-based correction method 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2017, 37 (15)
作者:  Liu, Ying;  Ren, Hong-Li
收藏  |  浏览/下载：11/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
ENSO  prediction  CFSv2  analogue-based correction  forecast errors