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The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：41/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Prediction of climate variables by comparing the k-nearest neighbor method and MIROC5 outputs in an arid environment 期刊论文
CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2019, 77 (2) : 99-114
作者:  Yazd, Hamid Reza Golkar Hamzee;  Salehnia, Nasrin;  Kolsoumi, Sohrab;  Hoogenboom, Gerrit
收藏  |  浏览/下载：14/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
RCP4.5  Statistical downscaling  Delta method  Ensemble  LARS-WG  Lut Desert  
High-resolution projections of mean and extreme precipitations over China through PRECIS under RCPs 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 50: 4037-4060
作者:  Zhu, Jinxin;  Huang, Gordon;  Wang, Xiuquan;  Cheng, Guanhui;  Wu, Yinghui
收藏  |  浏览/下载：13/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Precipitation and extremes  Dynamical downscaling  PRECIS  China  RCP4.5 and RCP8.5  
Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 49
作者:  Rupp, David E.;  Abatzoglou, John T.;  Mote, Philip W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：10/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
CMIP5  Projections  RCP4.5  RCP8.5  Columbia River Basin  Variability  Fidelity  Variance partition  
CMIP5 ensemble-based spatial rainfall projection over homogeneous zones of India 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 49
作者:  Akhter, Javed;  Das, Lalu;  Deb, Argha
收藏  |  浏览/下载：21/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
CMIP5 models  Homogeneous rainfall zones  Performance metrics  Bias correction  MME  RCP 4.5 and 8.5  
Future changes in propagating and non-propagating diurnal rainfall over East Asia 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 49
作者:  Huang, Wan-Ru;  Wang, S. -Y. Simon
收藏  |  浏览/下载：19/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Diurnal rainfall  CMIP5  East Asia  RCP4.5  
Impact of climate change and El Nio episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 49
作者:  Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum;  Gan, Thian Yew
收藏  |  浏览/下载：8/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
PDSI  RCP4.5  RCP8.5  Sub-Saharan Africa  El Nino  Drought Indices  
Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 48
作者:  Rupp, David E.;  Li, Sihan;  Mote, Philip W.;  Shell, Karen M.;  Massey, Neil;  Sparrow, Sarah N.;  Wallom, David C. H.;  Allen, Myles R.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：16/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Regional climate modeling  Seasonal temperature projections  RCP 4.5  Western US