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Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 502-+
作者:  Bhaskar, M. K.;  Riedinger, R.;  Machielse, B.;  Levonian, D. S.;  Nguyen, C. T.;  Knall, E. N.;  Park, H.;  Englund, D.;  Loncar, M.;  Sukachev, D. D.;  Lukin, M. D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：37/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/03

An infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios-which may have markedly different, but equally plausible, dynamics-can underpin a given time-calibrated phylogeny of extant species, suggesting many previous studies have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence.


Time-calibrated phylogenies of extant species (referred to here as '  extant timetrees'  ) are widely used for estimating diversification dynamics(1). However, there has been considerable debate surrounding the reliability of these inferences(2-5) and, to date, this critical question remains unresolved. Here we clarify the precise information that can be extracted from extant timetrees under the generalized birth-death model, which underlies most existing methods of estimation. We prove that, for any diversification scenario, there exists an infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios that are equally likely to have generated any given extant timetree. These '  congruent'  scenarios cannot possibly be distinguished using extant timetrees alone, even in the presence of infinite data. Importantly, congruent diversification scenarios can exhibit markedly different and yet similarly plausible dynamics, which suggests that many previous studies may have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence. We introduce identifiable and easily interpretable variables that contain all available information about past diversification dynamics, and demonstrate that these can be estimated from extant timetrees. We suggest that measuring and modelling these identifiable variables offers a more robust way to study historical diversification dynamics. Our findings also make it clear that palaeontological data will continue to be crucial for answering some macroevolutionary questions.


  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：41/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Multi-century trends to wetter winters and drier summers in the England and Wales precipitation series explained by observational and sampling bias in early records 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Murphy, Conor;  Wilby, Robert L.;  Matthews, Tom K. R.;  Thorne, Peter;  Broderick, Ciaran;  Fealy, Rowan;  Hall, Julia;  Harrigan, Shaun;  Jones, Phil;  McCarthy, Gerard;  MacDonald, Neil;  Noone, Simon;  Ryan, Ciara
收藏  |  浏览/下载：30/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
data quality  drier summers  England Wales Precipitation  Gordon Manley  historical climate  sleet and snow  wetter winters  
Four decades of plant community change along a continental gradient of warming 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (5) : 1629-1641
作者:  Becker-Scarpitta, Antoine;  Vissault, Steve;  Vellend, Mark
收藏  |  浏览/下载：19/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
biodiversity  climate changes  community ecology  forest  historical ecology  legacy data  long-term monitoring  plant community  resurvey  understory vegetation  
A 19th century daily surface pressure series for the Southwestern Cape region of South Africa: 1834-1899 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (3) : 1404-1414
作者:  Picas, Jessica;  Grab, Stefan;  Allan, Rob
收藏  |  浏览/下载：17/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
barometer observations  historical climatology  MSLP data  South African Astronomical Observatory  
The longest one-man weather chronicle (1721-1786) by Gottfried Reyger for Gdask, Poland as a source for improved understanding of past climate variability 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (2) : 828-842
作者:  Filipiak, Janusz;  Przybylak, Rajmund;  Olinski, Piotr
收藏  |  浏览/下载：9/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
18th century  climate variability  documentary data  Gdask  Gottfried Reyger  historical climatology  Poland  
Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2019, 116 (24) : 11833-11838
作者:  Xu, Lei;  Stige, Leif C.;  Leirs, Herwig;  Neerinckx, Simon;  Gage, Kenneth L.;  Yang, Ruifu;  Liu, Qiyong;  Bramanti, Barbara;  Dean, Katharine R.;  Tang, Hui;  Sun, Zhe;  Stenseth, Nils Chr.;  Zhang, Zhibin
收藏  |  浏览/下载：23/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Yersinia pestis  Third Pandemic  climate change  global transmission velocity  historical and genomic data  
The October 1891 Cartago (Costa Rica) floods from documentary sources and 20CR data 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2018, 38 (13) : 4830-4845
作者:  Amador, Jorge A.;  Anderson, Maria J.;  Calderon, Blanca;  Pribyl, Kathleen
收藏  |  浏览/下载：18/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
temporales  20CR data  Cartago floods  extreme events  historical climatology  societal impacts  
Hydrometric Data Rescue in the Parana River Basin 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2018, 54 (2) : 1368-1381
作者:  Antico, Andres;  Aguiar, Ricardo O.;  Amsler, Mario L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：9/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Historical hydrometric data  Parana River  data rescue  Hydroclimate variability  ENSO  IPO  
Dendroclimatology and historical climatology of Voronezh region, European Russia, since 1790s 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2017, 37 (7)
作者:  Matskovsky, Vladimir;  Dolgova, Ekaterina;  Lomakin, Nikita;  Matveev, Sergey
收藏  |  浏览/下载：16/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
tree-ring  Pinus sylvestris  reconstruction  drought  historical data  SPEI  teleconnection patterns  Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation