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加拿大研究称人为气候变化加剧了加拿大野火风险 快报文章
气候变化快报,2025年第1期
作者:  董利苹 杜海霞
Microsoft Word(18Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:449/0  |  提交时间:2025/01/05
Human  Climate Change  Likelihood  Area  2023  
Response to technical comment 'A cautionary note for users of linear diversification dependencies' 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2020, 23 (7) : 1172-1174
作者:  Morlon, Helene;  Rolland, Jonathan;  Condamine, Fabien L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/20
Extinction  macroevolution  maximum-likelihood  rate dependencies  RPANDA  speciation  
Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Liu, Jifeng;  Soria, Roberto;  Zheng, Zheng;  Zhang, Haotong;  Lu, Youjun;  Wang, Song;  Yuan, Hailong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:38/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses(1). The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset(2-5). Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed.


The results obtained by seventy different teams analysing the same functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of analytical choices and the importance of sharing workflows publicly and performing multiple analyses.


  
Integrating genomic features for non-invasive early lung cancer detection 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7802) : 245-+
作者:  Wang, Qinyang;  Wang, Yupeng;  Ding, Jingjin;  Wang, Chunhong;  Zhou, Xuehan;  Gao, Wenqing;  Huang, Huanwei;  Shao, Feng;  Liu, Zhibo
收藏  |  浏览/下载:40/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Circulating tumour DNA in blood is analysed to identify genomic features that distinguish early-stage lung cancer patients from risk-matched controls, and these are integrated into a machine-learning method for blood-based lung cancer screening.


Radiologic screening of high-risk adults reduces lung-cancer-related mortality(1,2)  however, a small minority of eligible individuals undergo such screening in the United States(3,4). The availability of blood-based tests could increase screening uptake. Here we introduce improvements to cancer personalized profiling by deep sequencing (CAPP-Seq)(5), a method for the analysis of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA), to better facilitate screening applications. We show that, although levels are very low in early-stage lung cancers, ctDNA is present prior to treatment in most patients and its presence is strongly prognostic. We also find that the majority of somatic mutations in the cell-free DNA (cfDNA) of patients with lung cancer and of risk-matched controls reflect clonal haematopoiesis and are non-recurrent. Compared with tumour-derived mutations, clonal haematopoiesis mutations occur on longer cfDNA fragments and lack mutational signatures that are associated with tobacco smoking. Integrating these findings with other molecular features, we develop and prospectively validate a machine-learning method termed '  lung cancer likelihood in plasma'  (Lung-CLiP), which can robustly discriminate early-stage lung cancer patients from risk-matched controls. This approach achieves performance similar to that of tumour-informed ctDNA detection and enables tuning of assay specificity in order to facilitate distinct clinical applications. Our findings establish the potential of cfDNA for lung cancer screening and highlight the importance of risk-matching cases and controls in cfDNA-based screening studies.


  
The pheromone darcin drives a circuit for innate and reinforced behaviours 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7793) : 137-+
作者:  Du, Zhiguo;  Yang, Shubin;  Li, Songmei;  Lou, Jun;  Zhang, Shuqing;  Wang, Shuai;  Li, Bin;  Gong, Yongji;  Song, Li;  Zou, Xiaolong;  Ajayan, Pulickel M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:43/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Organisms have evolved diverse behavioural strategies that enhance the likelihood of encountering and assessing mates(1). Many species use pheromones to communicate information about the location, sexual and social status of potential partners(2). In mice, the major urinary protein darcin-which is present in the urine of males-provides a component of a scent mark that elicits approach by females and drives learning(3,4). Here we show that darcin elicits a complex and variable behavioural repertoire that consists of attraction, ultrasonic vocalization and urinary scent marking, and also serves as a reinforcer in learning paradigms. We identify a genetically determined circuit-extending from the accessory olfactory bulb to the posterior medial amygdala-that is necessary for all behavioural responses to darcin. Moreover, optical activation of darcin-responsive neurons in the medial amygdala induces both the innate and the conditioned behaviours elicited by the pheromone. These neurons define a topographically segregated population that expresses neuronal nitric oxide synthase. We suggest that this darcin-activated neural circuit integrates pheromonal information with internal state to elicit both variable innate behaviours and reinforced behaviours that may promote mate encounters and mate selection.


A neural circuit activated by the male pheromone, darcin, mediates a complex and variable array of innate and reinforced behaviours that may promote mate encounters and mate selection.


  
Rarity of shortleaf, slash, and longleaf pine seedlings in oak-pine forest types: An assessment of associated environmental, stand, site, and disturbance factors 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2019, 438: 151-162
作者:  Ojha, Santosh K.;  Naka, Kozma;  Dimov, Luben D.;  Bhatta, Dilli
收藏  |  浏览/下载:32/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
FIA  Logistic modeling  Pine seedlings, regeneration  Penalized maximum likelihood estimation  Oak-pine forest  Forest disturbances  Site productivity  
The measurement of coevolution in the wild 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2019, 22 (4) : 717-725
作者:  BobWeek;  Nuismer, Scott L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Coevolution  coevolutionary arms race  evolutionary ecology  maximum likelihood  quantitative genetics  
Non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency curves integrating information concerning teleconnections and climate change 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (4) : 2306-2323
作者:  Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.;  Yousef, Latifa A.;  Charron, Christian
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
climate change  climate oscillation indices  composite likelihood  hydro-meteorological modelling  intensity-duration-frequency  non-stationarity  rainfall  
Likelihood of concurrent climate extremes and variations over China 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (9)
作者:  Zhou, Ping;  Liu, Zhiyong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
compound events  climate extremes  joint probability  climate change  likelihood  
Evaluation of Nonparametric and Parametric Statistical Procedures for Modeling and Prediction of Cluster-Correlated Hydroclimatic Data 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2018, 54 (9) : 6948-6964
作者:  Singh, Sarmistha;  Abebe, Ash;  Srivastava, Puneet
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
joint rank fit  Wilcoxon rank sum  restricted maximum likelihood  baseflow  El Nino-Southern Oscillation