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美研究人员开发出预测干旱的新方法 快报文章
地球科学快报,2022年第18期
作者:  王立伟
Microsoft Word(15Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:630/0  |  提交时间:2022/09/25
Projected  drought extremes  
实地树木死亡率可矫正模型对全球森林碳汇的高估 快报文章
气候变化快报,2022年第09期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(14Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:772/0  |  提交时间:2022/04/29
Field-based Tree Mortality  Reduces  Estimates  Model-projected  Forest Carbon Sinks  
降水、冰芯和气候模型在水资源管理中的作用 快报文章
资源环境快报,2020年第17期
作者:  吴秀平
Microsoft Word(13Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:388/0  |  提交时间:2020/09/15
instrumental, palaeoclimate, and projected rainfall data  water resources management  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:84/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
A biomimetic eye with a hemispherical perovskite nanowire array retina 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7808) : 278-+
作者:  Hueckel, Theodore;  Hocky, Glen M.;  Palacci, Jeremie;  Sacanna, Stefano
收藏  |  浏览/下载:78/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

A biomimetic electrochemical eye is presented that has a hemispherical retina made from a high-density array of perovskite nanowires that are sensitive to light, mimicking the photoreceptors of a biological retina.


Human eyes possess exceptional image-sensing characteristics such as an extremely wide field of view, high resolution and sensitivity with low aberration(1). Biomimetic eyes with such characteristics are highly desirable, especially in robotics and visual prostheses. However, the spherical shape and the retina of the biological eye pose an enormous fabrication challenge for biomimetic devices(2,3). Here we present an electrochemical eye with a hemispherical retina made of a high-density array of nanowires mimicking the photoreceptors on a human retina. The device design has a high degree of structural similarity to a human eye with the potential to achieve high imaging resolution when individual nanowires are electrically addressed. Additionally, we demonstrate the image-sensing function of our biomimetic device by reconstructing the optical patterns projected onto the device. This work may lead to biomimetic photosensing devices that could find use in a wide spectrum of technological applications.


  
Measuring and forecasting progress towards the education-related SDG targets 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7805) : 636-+
作者:  Hindell, Mark A.;  Reisinger, Ryan R.;  Ropert-Coudert, Yan;  Huckstadt, Luis A.;  Trathan, Philip N.;  Bornemann, Horst;  Charrassin, Jean-Benoit;  Chown, Steven L.;  Costa, Daniel P.;  Danis, Bruno;  Lea, Mary-Anne;  Thompson, David;  Torres, Leigh G.;  Van de Putte, Anton P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:49/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Education is a key dimension of well-being and a crucial indicator of development(1-4). The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) prioritize progress in education, with a new focus on inequality(5-7). Here we model the within-country distribution of years of schooling, and use this model to explore educational inequality since 1970 and to forecast progress towards the education-related 2030 SDG targets. We show that although the world is largely on track to achieve near-universal primary education by 2030, substantial challenges remain in the completion rates for secondary and tertiary education. Globally, the gender gap in schooling had nearly closed by 2018 but gender disparities remained acute in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East. It is predicted that, by 2030, females will have achieved significantly higher educational attainment than males in 18 countries. Inequality in education reached a peak globally in 2017 and is projected to decrease steadily up to 2030. The distributions and inequality metrics presented here represent a framework that can be used to track the progress of each country towards the SDG targets and the level of inequality over time. Reducing educational inequality is one way to promote a fairer distribution of human capital and the development of more equitable human societies.


Great progress toward the education-related SDG targets has been made  however, global estimates of within-country distributions of education reveal gender disparities and high levels of total inequality in many parts of the world.


  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:43/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Projection and uncertainty of precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles over nine major basins in China 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 226: 122-137
作者:  Xu, Kai;  Xu, Bingbo;  Ju, Jiali;  Wu, Chuanhao;  Dai, Heng;  Hu, Bill X.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Precipitation extremes  Projected changes  Uncertainty  ETCCDI  CMIP5  China  
Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (8)
作者:  Tian, Fangxing;  Dong, Buwen;  Robson, Jon;  Sutton, Rowan;  Tett, Simon F. B.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
East-Asia-summer-monsoon (EASM)  local-Hadley-circulation  SST-gradient  projected-precipitation-change  climate-warming  uncertainty  
Drought characterization over India under projected climate scenario 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (4) : 1889-1911
作者:  Bisht, Deepak Singh;  Sridhar, Venkataramana;  Mishra, Ashok;  Chatterjee, Chandranath;  Raghuwanshi, Narendra Singh
收藏  |  浏览/下载:16/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
drought  India  MME  projected climate  SPEI