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Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 226-+
作者:  Blasius, Bernd;  Rudolf, Lars;  Weithoff, Guntram;  Gaedke, Ursula;  Fussmann, Gregor F.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:33/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey(1-4). However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods(5-8) and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors(9-19). Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.


  
Prediction of airborne pollen concentrations for the plane tree as a tool for evaluating allergy risk in urban green areas 期刊论文
LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING, 2019, 189: 285-295
作者:  Lara, Beatriz;  Rojo, Jesus;  Fernandez-Gonzalez, Federico;  Perez-Badia, Rosa
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Plane tree pollen  Allergy risk  Meteorological variables  Forecasting model  Time series analysis  
Dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a Bayesian statistical approach 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (1)
作者:  Rohmer, Jeremy;  Le Cozannet, Goneri
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
mean sea level  extremes  Bayesian structure time series model  Kalman-filter  climate indices  
Time Series Forecasting of Air Quality Based On Regional Numerical Modeling in Hong Kong 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2018, 123 (8) : 4175-4196
作者:  Liu, Tong;  Lau, Alexis K. H.;  Sandbrink, Kai;  Fung, Jimmy C. H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:19/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
air quality  forecast  numerical model  stochastic model  time series  ARIMA  
Gasoline demand, pricing policy, and social welfare in Saudi Arabia: A quantitative analysis 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2018, 114: 123-133
作者:  Atalla, Tarek N.;  Gasim, Anwar A.;  Hunt, Lester C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Saudi Arabia  Gasoline Demand  Structural Time Series Model  Underlying Energy Demand Trend  Subsidies  Welfare  
Mistral and Tramontane wind systems in climate simulations from 1950 to 2100 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 50: 693-703
作者:  Obermann-Hellhund, Anika;  Conte, Dario;  Somot, Samuel;  Torma, Csaba Zsolt;  Ahrens, Bodo
收藏  |  浏览/下载:26/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
General circulation models  Regional climate models  Time series  Model intercomparison  Mistral  Tramontane  Future climate  Bayesian network  
Coupled effects of wind-storms and drought on tree mortality across 115 forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2017, 23 (12)
作者:  Csillery, Katalin;  Kunstler, Georges;  Courbaud, Benoit;  Allard, Denis;  Lassegues, Pierre;  Haslinger, Klaus;  Gardiner, Barry
收藏  |  浏览/下载:21/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
ecological interactions  forest damage  forest management  lagged effects  model selection  time series  
Temperature-mortality relationship in dairy cattle in France based on an iso-hygro-thermal partition of the territory 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2017, 12 (11)
作者:  Morignat, Eric;  Gay, Emilie;  Vinard, Jean-Luc;  Calavas, Didier;  Henaux, Viviane
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
dairy cattle mortality  THI  spatial partitioning  distributed lag non-linear model  time series  
Decline in China's coal consumption: An evidence of peak coal or a temporary blip? 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2017, 108
作者:  Wang, Qiang;  Li, Rongrong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:22/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Peak coal  Five-year-plan  Time-series model  
Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2017, 185: 43477
作者:  Duangdai, Eakkapong;  Likasiri, Chulin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Time series model  ARMA model  System of differential equations model  Scenario analysis  Seasonal rainfalls  Forest area