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Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Fernandez, Diego Carlos;  Komal, Ruchi;  Langel, Jennifer;  Ma, Jun;  Duy, Phan Q.;  Penzo, Mario A.;  Zhao, Haiqing;  Hattar, Samer
收藏  |  浏览/下载:85/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Sudden, large-scale and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks of disease into widespread epidemics(1-4). Rapid and accurate tracking of aggregate population flows may therefore be epidemiologically informative. Here we use 11,478,484 counts of mobile phone data from individuals leaving or transiting through the prefecture of Wuhan between 1 January and 24 January 2020 as they moved to 296 prefectures throughout mainland China. First, we document the efficacy of quarantine in ceasing movement. Second, we show that the distribution of population outflow from Wuhan accurately predicts the relative frequency and geographical distribution of infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until 19 February 2020, across mainland China. Third, we develop a spatio-temporal '  risk source'  model that leverages population flow data (which operationalize the risk that emanates from epidemic epicentres) not only to forecast the distribution of confirmed cases, but also to identify regions that have a high risk of transmission at an early stage. Fourth, we use this risk source model to statistically derive the geographical spread of COVID-19 and the growth pattern based on the population outflow from Wuhan  the model yields a benchmark trend and an index for assessing the risk of community transmission of COVID-19 over time for different locations. This approach can be used by policy-makers in any nation with available data to make rapid and accurate risk assessments and to plan the allocation of limited resources ahead of ongoing outbreaks.


Modelling of population flows in China enables the forecasting of the distribution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the identification of areas at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at an early stage.


  
Hair-bearing human skin generated entirely from pluripotent stem cells 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  von Appen, Alexander;  LaJoie, Dollie;  Johnson, Isabel E.;  Trnka, Michael J.;  Pick, Sarah M.;  Burlingame, Alma L.;  Ullman, Katharine S.;  Frost, Adam
收藏  |  浏览/下载:73/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Skin organoids generated in vitro from human pluripotent stem cells form complex, multilayered skin tissue with hair follicles, sebaceous glands and neural circuitry, and integrate with endogenous skin when grafted onto immunocompromised mice.


The skin is a multilayered organ, equipped with appendages (that is, follicles and glands), that is critical for regulating body temperature and the retention of bodily fluids, guarding against external stresses and mediating the sensation of touch and pain(1,2). Reconstructing appendage-bearing skin in cultures and in bioengineered grafts is a biomedical challenge that has yet to be met(3-9). Here we report an organoid culture system that generates complex skin from human pluripotent stem cells. We use stepwise modulation of the transforming growth factor beta (TGF beta) and fibroblast growth factor (FGF) signalling pathways to co-induce cranial epithelial cells and neural crest cells within a spherical cell aggregate. During an incubation period of 4-5 months, we observe the emergence of a cyst-like skin organoid composed of stratified epidermis, fat-rich dermis and pigmented hair follicles that are equipped with sebaceous glands. A network of sensory neurons and Schwann cells form nerve-like bundles that target Merkel cells in organoid hair follicles, mimicking the neural circuitry associated with human touch. Single-cell RNA sequencing and direct comparison to fetal specimens suggest that the skin organoids are equivalent to the facial skin of human fetuses in the second trimester of development. Moreover, we show that skin organoids form planar hair-bearing skin when grafted onto nude mice. Together, our results demonstrate that nearly complete skin can self-assemble in vitro and be used to reconstitute skin in vivo. We anticipate that our skin organoids will provide a foundation for future studies of human skin development, disease modelling and reconstructive surgery.


  
A native apex predator limits an invasive mesopredator and protects native prey: Tasmanian devils protecting bandicoots from cats 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2020, 23 (4) : 711-721
作者:  Cunningham, Calum X.;  Johnson, Christopher N.;  Jones, Menna E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Apex predator  disease  evolutionary naivete  feral cat  invasive species  mesopredator release  structural equation modelling  trophic cascade  
Pathogens manipulate the preference of vectors, slowing disease spread in a multi-host system 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2019, 22 (7) : 1115-1125
作者:  Shoemaker, Lauren G.;  Hayhurst, Evelyn;  Weiss-Lehman, Christopher P.;  Strauss, Alexander T.;  Porath-Krause, Anita;  Borer, Elizabeth T.;  Seabloom, Eric W.;  Shaw, Allison K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Barley  cereal yellow dwarf virus  behavioural ecology  disease ecology  host diversity  pathogen transmission  vector behaviour  vector manipulation hypothesis  vector-borne disease  vectored disease modelling  
Making ecological models adequate 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2018, 21 (2) : 153-166
作者:  Getz, Wayne M.;  39;Odorico, Paolo;  39;Sullivan, David
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
appropriate complexity modelling  coarse graining  disease modelling  ecosystems restoration models  environmental management models  extinction risk assessment  hierarchical modelling